NRL/Super 14 Picks week 4

One of the things I am famous for is being shit at sports gambling. It's gotten so bad that when I am going down the pub to put a bet on and my daughter says "Where are you going Daddy?" my wife invariably says "Daddy is going to throw some money in the bin" which is generally accurate but really fucks with my daughters head.
The thing is, I do fairly well at picking the games, but I always have 5 or 6 leg multis. I am a master at getting 5 out of 6 right. If I were gambling on each game, I'd probably make a decent profit. Unfortunately, I am greedy and thick as pigshit so I get three parts of fuck all each week (although I did hit a 10-1 4 leg multi in Week 1 of the Super 14)
With all of this in mind I thought it would be a good idea to have a weekly post picking some specials in the league and union. Although you are crazier than Angelina Jolie during her Billy Bob days if you actually invest anything based on this shoddy advice.
PARRA (-2.5) over Roosters
Roosters only getting two and a half when their only win was over winless Canberra? Parra have a good coach now therefore are playing with heart and brains (see also, the Dragons) so shouldn't have too much trouble here. The Roosters are probably over valued because they are at home, unfortunately for them the SFS as a home ground is as scary as a rundown by three playmates. And, importantly, the Roosters are shit anyway.
Titans (+13.5) over STORM
13.5 seems too high here- the Titans have been playing well, while the Storms for and against is only plus-13 on the year. True, the Titans travel terribly while the Storm have one of the best home ground advantages in the league, but I like the points here.
Manly (-5.5) over KNIGHTS
Two desperate teams, the Knights at home, but without any good players. They missed Joey when he left, but the loss of Buderus will prove almost as bad. Kurt Gidley can't win by himself and is overrated in the first place.
CRUSADERS (-3.5) over Bulls
The Crusaders are rounding into some sort of form thanks to the fact that the Tahs can't score, and while the Bulls are a quality outfit, backing South Africans in Christchurch is generally a poor investment
SHARKS (-7) over Hurricanes
LOVE the Sharks at home. The Canes started well but havent set the world on fire lately. The Sharks are money here- they have had only two home games but have really taken care on business both times- they'll do it again here.
Brumbies (3.5) over CHEETAHS
The Cheetahs could be the worst Super 14 team in recent memory, with 6 losses at -106 in the first six weeks and they've already played the putrid Lions, basically their only hope for a win. While I'm always nervous backing against South Africans, I mean, for fuck sake, its the Cheetahs. The Brumbies are 3 and 3, 0-2 on their South African trip, but they really need the cash here. 3 and a half isn't too much to give.